Prof. Mpumelelo Ncube
In an era marked by accelerated geopolitical shifts and increasing multipolarity, it is imperative for African states to develop a clear understanding of their strategic interests and adopt sophisticated, long-term approaches to global engagement.
The stakes are ever high. The decisions made today will determine whether Africa continues to occupy a peripheral role in global affairs or asserts its rightful position as a leader in sustainable development, peace and innovation.
History, in the post-independence era, reveals a persistent pattern. One where Africa has frequently struggled to articulate a unified and coherent position on issues of critical importance to its own development.
While global diplomacy is often likened to a game in which outcomes are determined by strength, but also by strategic acumen, Africa’s participation in this “game” has often been undermined by internal fragmentation. The result has been a pattern of disunity that external actors have consistently exploited.
Three key examples illustrate the consequences of Africa’s inability to act in unison.
Firstly, there is the issue of climate change negotiations at the United Nations Climate Summit. Although African nations are among the most affected by climate change, the continent has often failed to present a coordinated position in international climate negotiations. Disparate national interests, varying degrees of vulnerability, and reliance on donor support have contributed to fragmented advocacy. This has weakened Africa’s bargaining power, particularly in critical areas such as climate finance, adaptation mechanisms, and compensation for loss and damage. This diminishes the continent’s prospects for social development.
Secondly, there was the 2011 Libyan crisis, which will forever be an albatross around Africa’s neck. The African Union (AU) initially advocated for a peaceful resolution to the Libyan conflict. However, several African states either supported or conceded to the Nate-led intervention endorsed by the 1973 UN Security Council Resolution. This divergence undermined the AU’s position and weakened Africa’s capacity to influence the post-conflict reconstruction of Libya, thereby reducing the continental voice in matters of regional peace and security.
Thirdly, it is an issue of the reform of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). Despite the long-standing Ezulwini Consensus of 2005, which calls for expanded African representation in the UNSC, African states have been unable to coalesce around specific candidates or a unified reform agenda. Internal competition among leading states, particularly Nigeria, South Africa, and Egypt, has stalled progress, revealing deeper fractures in continental diplomacy.
Amid contemporary global tensions, ranging from the US-China rivalry to the continuing Russia-Europe standoff, Africa finds itself in a vulnerable position, caught between competing spheres of influence. Recent overtures from major powers resemble a modern-day Berlin Conference, with external actors vying for influence across a divided continent. In the absence of unity, individual African states are likely to be courted in isolation, weakening the continent’s collective agency.
Africa possesses immense potential through its rich natural resources, a burgeoning youth population, and vast opportunities in green energy, digital innovation and agribusiness. A cohesive and assertive Africa, leveraging its comparative advantages, could emerge as a key architect of a new, more equitable world order.
The challenge lies in external dynamics and in the internal strategic posture of African leaders.
A classic example is last Wednesday’s diplomatic engagement between Pres. Cyril Ramaphosa and the US administration, which reflects a calculated effort to restore strained relations. In the face of provocations, including misleading statements by Pres. Donald Trump on land reform and crime in South Africa, Ramaphosa’s measured approach arguably prioritised long-term diplomatic and economic interests over rhetorical retaliation.
■ Prof Mpumelelo Ncube is head of the department of Social Work at the University of the Free State (UFS).
